Northwest Houston, TX, during the early afternoon.
Summary: The day was very warm, sunny, and dry. I didn't see any rain anywhere on the radar in the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. I didn't see, feel, or hear any rain drops. Alto stratus and stratus clouds looked to have started to be widely scattered across the sky, sometime during the late morning and stayed through the early afternoon. The sky looked to have become clear, sometime during the mid, or maybe late afternoon and stayed that way through the evening and night, think. I think the sky looked to be clear, during the early and mid-morning. The wind speeds looked to be calm with gentle to moderate gusts with some moderately strong gusts. It felt warm, during the early morning, late evening, and night. It felt very warm, during the mid-morning and early evening. It felt very warm, almost hot, during the late morning. It felt hot, during the afternoon. There were no watches, warnings, alerts, advisories, or weather statements/outlooks issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of. The low temps looked to be in the 60's with maybe some 70's and the high temps looked to be in the 80's with maybe some 90's, for the Houston, TX area.
Houston, TX Storm Summary: I didn't see any rain anywhere on the radar in the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. I didn't hear about, or see any reports of flooding, or storm damage to anywhere in the Houston, TX area.
My Storm Summary: I didn't see, feel, or hear any rain drops. I didn't see any storm clouds, flooding, wet ground, lightning, or storm damage. I didn't hear any rumbles of thunder.
Locations: Northwest Houston, TX.
Thoughts: It felt hot today during the afternoon, even though the highest temp that I saw in my neighborhood (where I was all day) was only in the high 80's. Lots of differences with the Houston, TX forecast this weekend and next week.
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000 FXUS64 KHGX 062334 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 634 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017 .AVIATION.../00Z TAF/ Weak high pressure over the area has allowed for light east winds today. Winds should decouple tonight with VFR conditions. Tropical Storm Nate will be moving into the Gulf of Mexico tonight and into the northern Gulf tomorrow. Winds should become northerly tomorrow with an increase of moisture in response to Nate. Intermittent shower activity will be possible through the day tomorrow for KIAH southward to the coast. TAFs include VCSH for these terminals and keeping KCLL, KUTS and KCXO with no mention of precipitation. Overpeck && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017/ DISCUSSION... The two major factors on the area`s forecast will be Tropical Storm Nate, churning northward across the Central Gulf of Mexico, and for the long-awaited front early next week. While there continues to be strong agreement that the front will enter the region Tuesday, there`s less consensus as to how strongly and how far across the area it will push. This introduces a little more uncertainty into both rain chances near the front and how dry and cool we`ll get on the backside of the front into the middle and late week. Regardless, the spread in outcomes is relatively low stakes, with little to no potential for dangerous weather in our area. NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... A nice, clear radar scope presents across the area today, with the exception of an interference spike to the northwest of the radar. Whether using the high-tech GOES-16, or the more hipster window technology, there is some cumulus present. However, the cu field is fairly flat, and does not show much - or any - ice content. That should continue for the rest of the afternoon, with clouds clearing out as the updrafts lose steam as we lose daytime heating. However, towards daybreak, the Gulf waters and perhaps some coastal spots will see clouds increasing thanks to a band of convection that may be tangentially related to Nate. It`s unclear how much rain will actually remain in this band, and may simply increase cloud cover around daybreak, but I do bring in some slight chance PoPs for the Gulf before dawn. SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]... As Nate barrels up towards the northern Gulf coast, we should look for at least some fair rain chances over much of the Gulf waters and for the upper coast from the storm`s outermost rainbands. The best chance for rain would be near and coastward of US-59/I-69, while the rest of the area should stay drier with northeasterly to northerly winds under the subsident edge of the storm. Rain should generally be light - about a third of an inch over a widespread area, but localized spots would see more. However, storm motion should be fast enough to keep too much rain from piling up in any one spot to cause any more issues than on a typical day in Southeast Texas featuring scattered showers and storms. There may be some potential for a bit of a repeat on Sunday, but by this time Nate should be quickly exiting the area, and located over Mississippi or western Alabama, and may simply be unable to generate rainbands in our area by this time. Also acting against rain potential too deep into our area will be the development of northerly flow at low levels because of the circulation of Nate. This flow won`t dry us out dramatically, but precipitable water values should be fairly similar to today with airflow from the continent rather than the Gulf. LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]... By Monday, look for return flow off the Gulf to quickly return in the wake of Nate, and we`ll start to pump moisture back into the area ahead of Tuesday`s front. Guidance seems fairly gung ho on precip, but chose to back it down some as there is fairly limited time for moisture return until the front moves into the area Tuesday. Also, have tended to flatten the PoP distribution in time given some uncertainty in just how quickly the front pushes across the area. There is pretty good confidence the front will be moving into Southeast Texas in the morning, but there`s more uncertainty in how it behaves from there. On the strong end is the Euro, which digs a deep upper trough in the lee of the Rockies to help push the front quickly to the Gulf early Tuesday afternoon. On the other end, the GFS favors a more compact northern stream upper trough - where it would dig into the Southern Plains, the GFS actually begins to cut off on the upstream side of the trough. However, it stays connected to the jet on the downstream side, which results in the nascent closed low getting sucked back up in the smaller, stronger trough. Now, thousands of feet beneath this, the front is starved of its upper support and limps slowly to the coast, barely making it over the waters. This would keep clouds in place, as well as rain chances at the coast and over the Gulf waters thanks to enhanced surface convergence on the dying front. I tend to favor the Euro solution, as it tends to match the general character of the guidance over the past days. This also gives it a bit more continuity with the previous forecast. That said, the GFS does not look terribly different from the GEFS mean, with only a couple members showing a marked post-frontal drop in temps and humidity. I do keep hints of the GFS` solution in the forecast, with some PoPs lingering through Wednesday and tempered falls in dewpoint and temps in the wake of the front. Both the GFS and Euro see winds working back towards onshore Thursday, which means we`ll see the rebound in heat and humidity begin for the late week AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]... VFR. Few CU over the area with dry air draped over the area. Light easterly winds should veer slightly by 10-30 degrees but still light. Moist axis associated with the surface trough south of Louisiana will shift westward and bring an increase in clouds mainly MVFR CIGS near 12z Saturday to the GLS/IAH area along with the threat of showers. By 15z Saturday expect SHRA and a few TSRA along and east of the surface trough axis which should be near an LBX/HOU/IAH line. Intermittent MVFR CIGS/VISBY 15z Saturday and beyond with the axis going nearly stationary. 45 MARINE... Easterly winds continue and seas gradually coming down and this should continue this evening. As trough over the Central Gulf moves west and over the UTCW will lead to increase in seas and rain chances. As Nate moves quickly northward Saturday across the Central Gulf will see some peripheral swell move into the region though the greater swell will be aimed into the Central Gulf Coast. Tide levels will continue to run a little above normal through the weekend. A cold front moves off the coast Tuesday morning and will usher in offshore flow for a couple of days. Winds and seas in the wake of the front will likely warrant SCEC and maybe SCA for 6-12 hours mainly for seas of 7-9 feet. 45 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 67 89 70 91 71 / 0 0 10 10 0 Houston (IAH) 71 87 73 90 72 / 0 30 10 20 10 Galveston (GLS) 78 85 79 87 79 / 20 50 20 20 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ Aviation/Marine...39
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